Palavras-chave
Agricultura Digital
Produtividade Verde
Inclusão Financeira
Dados em Painel
Como Citar
Resumo
Objetivo: Este estudo investiga se a digitalização agrícola impulsionada pela Inteligência Competitiva (CI) melhora a Produtividade Total dos Fatores Verde Agrícola - AGTFP nas 30 províncias da China. Três questões de pesquisa orientam a investigação: (1) a digitalização melhora significativamente a AGTFP? (2) por meio de quais mecanismos institucionais inclusão financeira digital e transferência de terras esse impacto ocorre? e (3) os efeitos apresentam heterogeneidade regional e dinâmicas não lineares capazes de gerar resultados paradoxais sob determinadas condições?
Metodologia/Abordagem: Foi construído um índice composto de digitalização agrícola utilizando o método de ponderação por entropia. A AGTFP foi mensurada por meio de um modelo Slack-Based Measure (SBM) orientado para insumos, incorporando outputs indesejáveis. Em uma estrutura de painel com efeitos fixos bidirecionais, o estudo emprega análise de mediação, testes de moderação e limiar (threshold), regressão quantílica e regressões por subgrupos regionais.
Originalidade/Relevância: Ao integrar a teoria da Inteligência Competitiva à análise da produtividade verde, este artigo desenvolve uma estrutura unificada de “mecanismo–contexto” para explicar como investimentos digitais idênticos podem produzir resultados distintos de eficiência entre diferentes regiões. O estudo amplia a teoria da agricultura digital para além das narrativas centradas na adoção tecnológica, direcionando a análise para processos de transformação estrutural em nível de ecossistema.
Principais Resultados: A digitalização exerce efeito positivo e significativo sobre a AGTFP (β = 0,495; p < 0,05) na especificação preferencial de efeitos fixos bidirecionais. A inclusão financeira digital medeia essa relação de forma mais expressiva (efeito indireto = 0,051) do que a transferência de terras (efeito indireto = 0,002). Um nível moderado de apoio fiscal amplia a eficácia da digitalização, enquanto intervenções excessivas reduzem seus efeitos positivos. A análise regional revela impactos fortemente positivos no leste da China, mas resultados adversos na região central, sugerindo ineficiências transitórias. A regressão quantílica confirma que o efeito de aumento da produtividade é mais intenso entre as províncias com menor desempenho.
Contribuições Teóricas/Metodológicas: O estudo contribui para a literatura sobre agricultura digital e produtividade verde ao propor um índice multidimensional de digitalização, uma medida de produtividade verde baseada no modelo SBM, uma trajetória de modernização não linear em estágios e uma estrutura analítica condicionada para avaliar a efetividade de políticas públicas.
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